2011 New York Mets Preview

With Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya in the rear view mirror, the new era of New York Mets baseball is about to commence. After a long offseason of financial uncertainty, low expectations, and unending criticism, the 2011 team is a critical part of the Mets successes in both the short and long term.

Upon taking the job, new General Manager Sandy Alderson was designated with an overpaid roster with little player flexibility. Unlike his two predecessors, new Manager Terry Collins takes an in-your-face approach that management hopes can ignite a team that has not lived up to expectations in each of the last four seasons. Alderson and Collins will have at least two years together to turn around a franchise that has seen nothing but heartbreak since losing Game 7 of the 2006 National League Championship Series.

On the field, the Mets appear to be a team that will need to rely on an offense that boasts numerous former All Stars. Not only is the pitching staff suspect to begin with, but there is no assurance that their ace Johan Santana will pitch at all in 2011. As a whole, the Mets have as many question marks as any team in baseball. If young players like Josh Thole and Jonathon Niese can continue to progress, if Mike Pelfrey can recapture the dominance he sported during the first half of the 2010 season, if Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran can stay healthy and bring some much needed power to the lineup, then the Mets list of question marks could be cut in half....at best.

As far as sure things go, David Wright and Jose Reyes should and will continue to be the foundation of the team. After a poor 2009 season, Wright bounced back in a big way with 103 RBIs and 29 HRs last year while Jose Reyes played well after missing most of '09. The biggest question involving the Wright/Reyes combination is if they will still be teammates by August 1st. There have been numerous reports, rumors, speculations, etc. about the future of Jose Reyes with the Mets. He is set to become a free agent and he will absolutely be looking to cash in on what could possibly be the last big money contract of his career. It is no secret that the Mets appear to be financially strapped going forward so trading Reyes may be their only choice. Much like the Denver Nuggets of the NBA, the Mets may be forced to trade their superstar simply because they would rather get something in return then watch him walk away in free agency. Sure they may not be compensated with equal value, but getting something is always better then nothing.

Perhaps the best thing that the Mets can hang their hat on is their future All Star First Baseman Ike Davis. Davis came on strong last year and appears to be one of the game's future stars. His calm demeanor fits well in the New York market and his maturity goes way beyond his years. Davis has the potential to reach 30 HRs and 85 RBIs this season. To go along with his bat, Davis is a stud defensively. His range and reliable glove make him a fixture at first base for the next ten years. The future is bright for the former first round pick.

Its too bad the Mets can't sprinkle some of the first base reliability to second, because it appears that Luis Castillo's old stomping grounds will be a roller coaster all season. As for now, Brad Emaus will be getting most of the playing time while Daniel Murphy and Chin-lung Hu fill in when necessary. Murphy showed plenty of promise in 2009 but missed all of 2010 due to injury. Murphy appears to be the team's most valuable bench player as he will come in at a number of different positions when called upon. Though his fielding may be suspect, he can deliver on the offensive side, which makes him a valuable piece of the Mets lineup.

No unit on the 2011 Mets has undergone more turnover then the bullpen. Gone are fixtures like Pedro Feliciano (Yankees) and Hisanori Takahashi (Angels), while newcomers Tim Byrdak, Taylor Buchholz, and D.J. Carrasco will be asked to pick up the slack. Byrdak is an older reliever who has been around and is considered a lefty specialist. He could provide solid innings but at his age injuries will always be a concern. Buchholz was elite...in 2008. The Mets cannot put too much pressure on him from the get go because he has missed the majority of the last two season recovering from shoulder surgery. Carrasco will be asked to pitch a lot of innings. He has past experience as a starter and considering what else the Mets have in the bullpen, he could play an integral part of the 2011 squad.

Back from last year are Francisco Rodriguez and Bobby Parnell. Other then Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran, perhaps no Met player has more pressure on him then K-Rod. He had an ugly falling out last season and it appears that the organization is waiting for his departure. For this season, K-Rod will need to do better then he has in his first two seasons in New York. Since leaving the Angels, K-Rod has never come close to matching his past performances. In his two seasons with the Mets he has been a solid closer, but he has not lived up to the contract that Omar Minaya gave him after the 2008 season in which he set the Major League record for saves in a single season (62.) Bobby Parnell has an elite fastball, sometimes reaching speeds as fast as 98mph. Some in the Mets organization believe that Parnell could possibly be the Mets future closer. It will be interesting to see just how many innings he pitches this season. He was effective last year (2.83 ERA), but he only pitched in 35 innings. In 2009 he appeared in 88 innings and his ERA was almost double that of last season (5.30 ERA.)

From afar, the Mets do not appear to be a team ready to contend for the playoffs. Over the last few years, however, more teams in Major League Baseball have seemingly come out of nowhere then people seem to realize. In terms of how this season will play out, here are a plethora of predictions---good and bad

The Good
-Josh Thole will continue to progress and make believers out of those who do not think he can be the catcher of the future

-R.A. Dickey will prove that last season was no fluke. He may not have as low an ERA (2.84) but he will provide quality starts for the Mets and will finish with at least 13 wins.

-Jonathon Niese will have an ERA under four and will add to the success he saw last season.

-Angel Pagan will bat above .280 and steal at least 35 bases

The Bad
-Mike Pelfrey will again drive Mets fans crazy. He will not be the consistent pitcher that the organization is hoping for. He will not reach the 15 win total that he achieved last season.

-Johan Santana will return in July but will not instill much confidence in the team as he will struggle to close out the season. It is not crazy to believe that 2011 may be the start of Santana's decline.

-Jason Bay will be better then 2010 (he cannot be much worse) but will not make anyone believe that he was worth the 4 year $66 million dollar contract that he signed last offseason. He will hit no more then 22 HRs.

2011 New York Mets record- 82-80