Compared to recent years, the 2011 NFL Draft is a weak class. Of the top ten or so players, none are considered slam dunks. We are less than 48 hours away from the draft and we still do not have a definitive answer as to who will be the number one pick will be. However, no matter who goes number one, three or five, the 2011 NFL draft will always been remembered as the "Cam Newton Draft."
Though Newton is raw and has a questionable past, there is no denying his physical ability. He had arguably the greatest season in the history of college football, dominating the best conference in route to a Heisman trophy and National Championship. He is bigger and faster than Tim Tebow and has a stronger arm. Newton will have to overcome poor accuracy and demonstrate that he is able to learn and understand a complicated NFL offense after playing in a simple "One-read then run" system at Auburn. Considering that Carolina has no established quarterback on the roster and that the other three teams in their division have Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman, it will be hard to justify passing on Newton if they believe he can be an NFL quarterback. No other player at the top of the draft has anywhere close to his potential.
Overrated
Blaine Gabbert (QB Missouri)- In all my years following the draft, no player has received more undeserved praise than Blaine Gabbert. He was underwhelming in a passing system in which his predecessor Chase Daniel put up astronomical numbers. Gabbert has prototypical size and arm strength but after watching the film there is nothing that makes you believe he is worth a first round pick, let alone a top 10 selection. He rarely took snaps from under center, his throws rarely went further than 12 yards, his pocket presence is below average, and his footwork is poor. To be blunt, Gabbert was never mentioned among the top college quarterbacks in any of his years at Missouri. He compares favorably to ex-NFL quarterback Rob Johnson; a tall, handsome, big armed passer who may have the tools but has never put it together.
Julio Jones (WR Alabama)- Tall, strong wide receiver who never had much speed in college. Ran a 4.39 at the combine and suddenly he is flying up draft boards (he has been projected as high as #4 overall.) Jones had problems getting separation in the tough SEC conference and now NFL scouts expect him to get open at the next level? Receivers taken in the top ten need to be physical freaks. Guys like Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson had elite size, athleticism, and speed. Julio Jones is simply not in their class. He also has a history of drops. Compares favorably to Dwayne Jarrett. Both were big time, productive college wide receivers but cannot get away from coverage.
Patrick Peterson (CB LSU)- There were many who thought he projected as a safety at the next level due to his questionable speed. Like Julio Jones, he ran well at the combine which boosted his draft stock. However, when putting on the tape, Peterson looks too big and too thick to stay at cornerback over the long haul. He had some dominating performances in college but he did get lit up on occasion. For a guy that has been mentioned as potentially the number one overall pick in the draft, Peterson does not compare favorably with elite corners like Darrelle Revis or even last year's number one cornerback Joe Haden.
Cameron Heyward (DE Ohio State)- Projected to be drafted in th late first round, Heyward simply does not make enough plays to be considered a first round pick. In four years at Ohio State, he had 15.5 sacks while playing mainly against weak competition. In comparison, now epic draft bust and ex-Ohio State defensive end Vernon Gholston had 14 sacks in his junior year alone. While Heyward may be a better run stuffer, there is no way to justify drafting a 3-4 defensive end in the 1st round if he cannot rush the passer.
Justin Houston (DE/OLB Georgia)- Fierce pass rusher in college football's toughest conference. Had 10 sacks last season and 18.5 tackles for loss. Ran a 4.6 forty at the combine at over 265 pounds. Why is he on the overrated list you ask? For a guy with as much physical talent as Houston, he has a very questionable motor and does not give 100% on every play (I hate to bring him up again but scouts said the exact same thing about Vernon Gholston.) Houston's most recent issue was testing positive for marijuana at the combine. He knew he was going to be tested so the fact that he tested positive anyway leaves serious concerns about his character and judgement. Because of his ability, there is still a chance Houston can develop into a dominating NFL player but he is not worth a 1st round pick.
Underrated
Jake Locker (QB Washington)- Locker will be the best quarterback of the 2011 draft class. He played on a bad team in a tough conference with little to no help around him. He is used to playing under deres and on the run, something he will have to do at the NFL level, especially early in his career. He has experience in a pro style offense and demonstrated extraordinary leadership ability over his four year college career. Though his completion percentage is low (54% in his four years at Washington) he rarely threw short/high completion passes. He plays with the same reckless abandon as Brett Favre and that style will quickly win over his future teammates. Along with his big arm and great touch passing the ball, Locker has exceptional speed (ran a 4.59 at the combine.)
Randall Cobb (QB/RB/WR Kentucky)- Played exclusively WR at Kentucky but is an ex-high school quarterback with experience in the Wild Cat offense. When looking at the successes of NFL players such as Josh Cribbs and Brad Smith, Cobb's future appears bright because not only does he possess the throwing ability of Cribbs and Smith, he was an elite wide receiver at the college level. Cobb always seemed to make his biggest plays at the biggest moments no matter what situation he was put in. In addition to running routes and lining up in the backfield, he has experience returning punts and kicks. Cobb is the jack-of-all trades that will help an NFL team in any number of ways.
Akeem Ayers (DE/OLB/ILB UCLA)- Ayers is the complete defensive player. He has experience rushing the passer, dropping back in coverage, and stopping the run. When watching him on tape, he is lined up all over the field. His production was exceptional no matter where he lined up and he gives 100% on every play. He ran poorly at the combine which has hurt his draft stock but he plays much faster then he timed. Ayers has the ability to develop into a Terrell Suggs type player because of his versatility and athleticism.
Leonard Hankerson (WR Miami)- Has all the tools to be an elite #1 WR at the NFL level. He has the size (6-1 209 lbs), the speed (4.43 at the combine), and the college production (1,156 yards and 13 TDs last year) that should make him an obvious first round pick. He runs smooth routes and doesn't drop many passes. For whatever reason, Hankerson is grading out as a 3rd/4th round pick. It may sound crazy but he looks very similar to fellow Miami Hurricane and now NFL great Reggie Wayne.
Ahmad Black (S Florida)- Made big plays in big games all throughout his college career. Though he may be undersized (5-9 184 lbs) Black is an above average tackler and has exceptional cover skills. He has fallen drastically down draft boards because of poor forty times but he never looks slow on film. After the Gators lost most of their defense to the NFL one year ago, Black took on the leadership role and came through in the team's biggest moments. Last year, fellow Gator safety Major Wright was drafted in the 3rd round by the Chicago Bears and looks to be their long term starter. Black was a far superior college player and will pay dividends for whoever selects him in the middle/late rounds.
Greg McElroy (QB Alabama)- Though he does not project as a long term starter, McElroy looks to be the perfect long term backup. He did not lose a game as a starter from eighth grade until his senior years in college. No matter how talented his team around him was that is still an impressive statistic. He has experience in a pro style offense and always took care of the ball. He had a 4.0 GPA throughout his years at Alabama and earned the highest score of any player on the Wonderlic test, correctly answering 43 out of a possible 50 questions. McElroy will most likely not be drafted until the 6th/7th round but whoever takes him will be thrilled to have him
Predictions
-There will not be any running backs taken in the 1st round.
-There will be four quarterbacks selected in the 1st round. Cam Newton to Carolina, Blaine Gabbert to Washington, Jake Locker to Minnesota, and Andy Dalton to Jacksonville.
-A.J Green will be a Cincinnati Bengal and Julio Jones will be a Cleveland Brown.
-Surprise, surprise, the Patriots will trade down and stock pile picks for next year.
-The Bills will not draft a quarterback in the 1st or 2nd round.
-The much maligned Ryan Mallet will be an Oakland Raider.
-No tight ends will be drafted in the 1st round.
-Da'Quan Bowers will fall past pick #15.
