Monday, June 13, 2011

What Will Jets Do With Free Agent Wide Receivers?

Once the lockout is over and the dust clears, the New York Jets will be facing more personel decisions than perhaps any other team in football. There are questions to be answered in the secondary, linebacking core, and along the offensive and defensive lines. However, no position on the Jets will be under more scrutiny and require more evaluation then the wide receivers. Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Brad Smith could all potentially be unrestricted free agents this summer. Together, Edwards and Holmes were one of the best receiving duos in all of football last season while Brad Smith provided a countless number of big plays as both a kick returner and Wild Cat quarterback. The Jets will be forced to make decisions concerning which of the three do indeed return, and perhaps more importantly, they must decide how they will replace those that move on to other teams.

Potential Resignees

Braylon Edwards

After a 2009 season that consisted of just as many big plays as drops, Edwards responded with an outstanding 2010 campaign that saw him average over 17 yards per catch while hauling in over 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. Even more impressive was that Edwards dropped only one pass throughout the 16 regular season and 3 postseason games in which the Jets played. Also, he made one of the biggest plays in Jets history by hauling in an 18 yard reception with less then 30 seconds to play that led to Nick Folk's game winning field goal against the Colts in the Wild Card Playoffs.

Edwards is one of the most physically gifted wide receivers in all of football. At 6-3 with tremendous speed, he is a matchup problem every week and forces defensive coordinators to take notice of his presence. In addition, he is one of the game's best blocking wide receivers, which perfectly suits a Jets team that runs the ball as much as any team in football.

Edwards has stated numerous times that he loves playing in New York and he wants to retire a New York Jet. He has even hurt himself in potential negotiations by stating that he will take a discount to remain with Gang Green. After being the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft, Edwards has collected his share of millions and it appears he would rather be winning in New York then collecting paychecks from a bad team.

Odds of returning- 7/10

Santonio Holmes

Santonio Holmes did not make his Jets debut until a week five Monday Night showdown against the Minnesota Vikings. From then on, he provided game winning plays and spectacular catches. In only 12 games, he hauled in 52 passes (only one fewer then Edwards, who caught 53 over 16 games.) When Holmes entered the lineup he immediately became Sanchez's go to guy, especially with the game on the line.

In a consecutive three week stretch, Holmes made the game winning play for the Jets. In week 9 at Detroit, he broke lose over the middle for a 52 yard catch and run in overtime that set up Nick Folk's game winning kick. One week later in Cleveland, he broke a tackle in route to a 36 yard catch and run that resulted in him scoring the game winning touchdown in overtime. In week 11 at home against Houston, he caught the game winning touchdown with 10 seconds left to bring the Jets to 8-2. According to Head Coach Rex Ryan, if the game is on the line then its "Tone Time."

Perhaps even greater then his three game winning catches was his seven yard touchdown grab against the New England Patriots in the Divisional Playoffs. It came midway through the 4th quarter on 3rd and goal with the Jets leading 14-11. On the previous drive, New England had marched down the field and scored a touchdown, bringing it to a one score game. If Holmes didn't make a spectacular catch then the Jets would have had to settle for a field goal and may not have won the game.

However, all was not perfect for Holmes in 2010. He had a number of bad moments that ended up costing the Jets victories. In week 8 against Green Bay, he dropped an easy drag route that would have led to a touchdown. The Jets ended up losing that game 9-0. A few weeks later against Miami, he dropped a wide open touchdown that would have given the Jets the lead. The Jets lost that game as well.

Holmes has stated that he is looking to cash in this offseason. In not so many words, he has said that he is going to go where the money is. Holmes has not yet made his millions. He was a late first round pick and he knows that this offseason is going to be the only big money contract he ever signs. He has a Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP, the only thing left for him to collect is the nice contract.

The biggest bargaining chip that the Jets, or any NFL team for that matter, has against Holmes is that he is one substance abuse violation away from a one year suspension. Are teams going to be willing to throw nine/ten million dollars a year at a guy who is one joint away from taking a year long vacation? Only the market can indicate.

Odds of returning- 5/10

Brad Smith

Since he was drafted back in 2006, Brad Smith has been making plays all over the field for the Jets. Whether it be at wide receiver, running back, quarterback, kick returner, punt returner, or gunner, Smith has always made his presence felt. He is a smart player who rarely makes mistakes and usually makes his impact plays during the game's biggest moments.

Though Smith has done plenty of great things in his five seasons with the Jets, the odds of him returning are slim to none. The Jets are going to need to invest money in guys like Holmes, Edwards, and Antonio Cromartie way before they even think about approaching Smith with a new contract. For everything he brings in the return game and in the Wild Cat formation, Smith's biggest weakness is playing the position he is listed at...wide receiver. Over the last three seasons he has caught only 23 passes. His statistics are more indicative of a running back as he has had more rushing yards then receiving in four of his five professional seasons. Also, for all the love Smith gets as a Wild Cat player, he has only thrown eight career passes. In other words, Smith is a jack-of-all trades but master-of-none option.

In any other offseason, Smith would be a guy that any team would want to bring back. However, because of all of their other free agents, as well as the new kickoff rule (moving the kickoff location from the 30 to the 35 yard line), the Jets will be hard pressed to even attempt to resign Smith. This is going to be his first and only opportunity to cash in with a lucrative contract. The circumstances surrounding the Jets are going to make him expendable.

In a move that may indicate that the Jets are preparing for the inevitable, the team drafted TCU wide receiver Jeremy Kerley in the 5th round of the draft. Not only is Kerley a viable slot receiver going forward, he is an exceptional return man and has experience in the Wild Cat formation (he threw a touchdown pass to Cincinatti Bengals 2nd round pick Andy Dalton last year.) That selection appeared to be a direct indication that the Jets are ready to move on from Smith.

Though he will be missed, there is little to no chance that Brad Smith returns for the 2011 season. The biggest thing that Jets fans can hope for is that he does not sign with the New England Patriots or Miami Dolphins.

Odds of returning- 2/10