Tuesday, April 26, 2011

2011 NFL Draft: News, Notes, Predictions



Compared to recent years, the 2011 NFL Draft is a weak class. Of the top ten or so players, none are considered slam dunks. We are less than 48 hours away from the draft and we still do not have a definitive answer as to who will be the number one pick will be. However, no matter who goes number one, three or five, the 2011 NFL draft will always been remembered as the "Cam Newton Draft."

Though Newton is raw and has a questionable past, there is no denying his physical ability. He had arguably the greatest season in the history of college football, dominating the best conference in route to a Heisman trophy and National Championship. He is bigger and faster than Tim Tebow and has a stronger arm. Newton will have to overcome poor accuracy and demonstrate that he is able to learn and understand a complicated NFL offense after playing in a simple "One-read then run" system at Auburn. Considering that Carolina has no established quarterback on the roster and that the other three teams in their division have Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Josh Freeman, it will be hard to justify passing on Newton if they believe he can be an NFL quarterback. No other player at the top of the draft has anywhere close to his potential.

Overrated

Blaine Gabbert (QB Missouri)- In all my years following the draft, no player has received more undeserved praise than Blaine Gabbert. He was underwhelming in a passing system in which his predecessor Chase Daniel put up astronomical numbers. Gabbert has prototypical size and arm strength but after watching the film there is nothing that makes you believe he is worth a first round pick, let alone a top 10 selection. He rarely took snaps from under center, his throws rarely went further than 12 yards, his pocket presence is below average, and his footwork is poor. To be blunt, Gabbert was never mentioned among the top college quarterbacks in any of his years at Missouri. He compares favorably to ex-NFL quarterback Rob Johnson; a tall, handsome, big armed passer who may have the tools but has never put it together.

Julio Jones (WR Alabama)- Tall, strong wide receiver who never had much speed in college. Ran a 4.39 at the combine and suddenly he is flying up draft boards (he has been projected as high as #4 overall.) Jones had problems getting separation in the tough SEC conference and now NFL scouts expect him to get open at the next level? Receivers taken in the top ten need to be physical freaks. Guys like Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson had elite size, athleticism, and speed. Julio Jones is simply not in their class. He also has a history of drops. Compares favorably to Dwayne Jarrett. Both were big time, productive college wide receivers but cannot get away from coverage.

Patrick Peterson (CB LSU)- There were many who thought he projected as a safety at the next level due to his questionable speed. Like Julio Jones, he ran well at the combine which boosted his draft stock. However, when putting on the tape, Peterson looks too big and too thick to stay at cornerback over the long haul. He had some dominating performances in college but he did get lit up on occasion. For a guy that has been mentioned as potentially the number one overall pick in the draft, Peterson does not compare favorably with elite corners like Darrelle Revis or even last year's number one cornerback Joe Haden.

Cameron Heyward (DE Ohio State)- Projected to be drafted in th late first round, Heyward simply does not make enough plays to be considered a first round pick. In four years at Ohio State, he had 15.5 sacks while playing mainly against weak competition. In comparison, now epic draft bust and ex-Ohio State defensive end Vernon Gholston had 14 sacks in his junior year alone. While Heyward may be a better run stuffer, there is no way to justify drafting a 3-4 defensive end in the 1st round if he cannot rush the passer.

Justin Houston (DE/OLB Georgia)- Fierce pass rusher in college football's toughest conference. Had 10 sacks last season and 18.5 tackles for loss. Ran a 4.6 forty at the combine at over 265 pounds. Why is he on the overrated list you ask? For a guy with as much physical talent as Houston, he has a very questionable motor and does not give 100% on every play (I hate to bring him up again but scouts said the exact same thing about Vernon Gholston.) Houston's most recent issue was testing positive for marijuana at the combine. He knew he was going to be tested so the fact that he tested positive anyway leaves serious concerns about his character and judgement. Because of his ability, there is still a chance Houston can develop into a dominating NFL player but he is not worth a 1st round pick.

Underrated

Jake Locker (QB Washington)- Locker will be the best quarterback of the 2011 draft class. He played on a bad team in a tough conference with little to no help around him. He is used to playing under deres and on the run, something he will have to do at the NFL level, especially early in his career. He has experience in a pro style offense and demonstrated extraordinary leadership ability over his four year college career. Though his completion percentage is low (54% in his four years at Washington) he rarely threw short/high completion passes. He plays with the same reckless abandon as Brett Favre and that style will quickly win over his future teammates. Along with his big arm and great touch passing the ball, Locker has exceptional speed (ran a 4.59 at the combine.)

Randall Cobb (QB/RB/WR Kentucky)- Played exclusively WR at Kentucky but is an ex-high school quarterback with experience in the Wild Cat offense. When looking at the successes of NFL players such as Josh Cribbs and Brad Smith, Cobb's future appears bright because not only does he possess the throwing ability of Cribbs and Smith, he was an elite wide receiver at the college level. Cobb always seemed to make his biggest plays at the biggest moments no matter what situation he was put in. In addition to running routes and lining up in the backfield, he has experience returning punts and kicks. Cobb is the jack-of-all trades that will help an NFL team in any number of ways.

Akeem Ayers (DE/OLB/ILB UCLA)- Ayers is the complete defensive player. He has experience rushing the passer, dropping back in coverage, and stopping the run. When watching him on tape, he is lined up all over the field. His production was exceptional no matter where he lined up and he gives 100% on every play. He ran poorly at the combine which has hurt his draft stock but he plays much faster then he timed. Ayers has the ability to develop into a Terrell Suggs type player because of his versatility and athleticism.

Leonard Hankerson (WR Miami)- Has all the tools to be an elite #1 WR at the NFL level. He has the size (6-1 209 lbs), the speed (4.43 at the combine), and the college production (1,156 yards and 13 TDs last year) that should make him an obvious first round pick. He runs smooth routes and doesn't drop many passes. For whatever reason, Hankerson is grading out as a 3rd/4th round pick. It may sound crazy but he looks very similar to fellow Miami Hurricane and now NFL great Reggie Wayne.

Ahmad Black (S Florida)- Made big plays in big games all throughout his college career. Though he may be undersized (5-9 184 lbs) Black is an above average tackler and has exceptional cover skills. He has fallen drastically down draft boards because of poor forty times but he never looks slow on film. After the Gators lost most of their defense to the NFL one year ago, Black took on the leadership role and came through in the team's biggest moments. Last year, fellow Gator safety Major Wright was drafted in the 3rd round by the Chicago Bears and looks to be their long term starter. Black was a far superior college player and will pay dividends for whoever selects him in the middle/late rounds.

Greg McElroy (QB Alabama)- Though he does not project as a long term starter, McElroy looks to be the perfect long term backup. He did not lose a game as a starter from eighth grade until his senior years in college. No matter how talented his team around him was that is still an impressive statistic. He has experience in a pro style offense and always took care of the ball. He had a 4.0 GPA throughout his years at Alabama and earned the highest score of any player on the Wonderlic test, correctly answering 43 out of a possible 50 questions. McElroy will most likely not be drafted until the 6th/7th round but whoever takes him will be thrilled to have him


Predictions

-There will not be any running backs taken in the 1st round.

-There will be four quarterbacks selected in the 1st round. Cam Newton to Carolina, Blaine Gabbert to Washington, Jake Locker to Minnesota, and Andy Dalton to Jacksonville.

-A.J Green will be a Cincinnati Bengal and Julio Jones will be a Cleveland Brown.

-Surprise, surprise, the Patriots will trade down and stock pile picks for next year.

-The Bills will not draft a quarterback in the 1st or 2nd round.

-The much maligned Ryan Mallet will be an Oakland Raider.

-No tight ends will be drafted in the 1st round.

-Da'Quan Bowers will fall past pick #15.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

2011 NBA Playoff Predictions

First Round
Eastern Conference
(1)Chicago Bulls over (8)Indiana Pacers in 5 games

(2)Miami Heat over (7)Philadelphia 76ers in 4 games

(3)Boston Celtics over (6)New York Knicks in 6 games

(4)Orlando Magic over (5)Atlanta Hawks in 6 games

Western Conference
(1)San Antonio Spurs over (8)Memphis Grizzlies in 5 games

(2)Los Angeles Lakers over (7)New Orleans Hornets in 4 games

(3)Dallas Mavericks over (6)Portland Trail Blazers in 7 games

(4)Oklahoma City Thunder over (5)Denver Nuggets in 6 games

Semi-Finals
Eastern Conference
(1)Chicago Bulls over (4)Orlando Magic in 6 games

(2)Miami Heat over (3)Boston Celtics in 6 games

Western Conference
(4)Oklahoma City Thunder over (1)San Antonio Spurs in 7 games

(2)Los Angeles Lakers over (3)Dallas Mavericks in 5 games

Conference Finals
Eastern Conference
(2)Miami Heat over (1)Chicago Bulls in 6 games

Western Conference
(4)Oklahoma City Thunder over (2)Los Angeles Lakers in 7 games

NBA Finals
(4)Oklahoma City Thunder over (2)Miami Heat in 6 games
Series MVP-Kevin Durant

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Did We Overreact With the Red Sox?


 Who would have thought that in early April it would be up to Daisuke Matsuzaka to save the Red Sox? Save may be too strong a word for this early in the season but something is going to have to change quickly before the Sox make their home debut at Fenway Park this Friday.

In acquiring Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the Red Sox became a shoe-in for a World Series championship. Considering that they finished 89-73 last season with a roster full of injured superstars, it seemed only logical that they could win 100+ games in 2011. However, in a surprising twist, the Sox now find themselves at 0-4 with their most unreliable pitcher set to take the mound tonight. Considering that they were dominated in three straight games in Arlington, followed up by a 3-1 loss in front of 9,000 people in Cleveland, there is room for concern.

However, rather then saying that Boston is now destined to an 0-162 season, but at the same time not saying they will be 158-4, lets meet somewhere in the middle. Baseball media and fans alike (including myself), seemed to not only predict that the Sox would win the World Series, they virtually guaranteed it. The Rays had lost some of their cornerstone players, the Yankees had no pitching, the Rangers lost Cliff Lee, it appeared the door out of the American League was open only to Boston. Now, Boston may very well still be the best team in the American League and may still be the representative in the World Series, but it is time to stop acting as if nobody else has a chance. Hell, lets not count out the Baltimore Orioles. They have the best record in baseball since Buck Showalter took over as Manager on July 29th of last year.

Contrary to popular belief, Major League Baseball is not the most predictable professional sports league in this country. That title belongs to the NBA. Over the last ten years, the mighty Yankees have won exactly one World Series. Of the 30 teams in baseball, only the Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Nationals/Expos, and Pirates haven't made the playoffs during the last decade. Teams like the 2002 Anaheim Angels, 2003 Florida Marlins, 2005 Chicago White Sox, and 2010 San Francisco Giants came out of nowhere to win the World Series. The list of surprise teams that have shocked prognosticators by making it to League Championship Series and World Series over the last ten years is much longer then the average fan would think. Sure, baseball has issues with small market teams that seemingly will never compete for championships, but more teams have had surprise runs and more supposed powerhouses have fallen short then baseball gets credit for.

This brings up back to the 2011 Red Sox. They do have two young pitching studs in Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. They do have an infield consisting of three great players in Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Adrian Gonzalez. Their outfield has an All Star in Carl Crawford and a .300 hitter who has lead the league in stolen bases in Jacoby Ellsbury. Oh and to top it all off, their DH is one of the better power hitters in all of baseball. In other words, they're stacked. But again, lets not guarantee that they are going to the World Series. The American League is made up of plenty of good/great teams. The Yankees, Twins, White Sox, Rangers, and Athletics are legit playoff contenders while teams like the Tigers, Blue Jays, Rays, and Angels have enough talent to stay in the race.

Things are bad in Boston right now. They might turn it around tonight or it might take a week or two before things begin to click. All in all, this does make it for a fun start to the season and hopefully an entertaining 2011 campaign.

Monday, April 4, 2011

2011 New York Mets Preview

With Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya in the rear view mirror, the new era of New York Mets baseball is about to commence. After a long offseason of financial uncertainty, low expectations, and unending criticism, the 2011 team is a critical part of the Mets successes in both the short and long term.

Upon taking the job, new General Manager Sandy Alderson was designated with an overpaid roster with little player flexibility. Unlike his two predecessors, new Manager Terry Collins takes an in-your-face approach that management hopes can ignite a team that has not lived up to expectations in each of the last four seasons. Alderson and Collins will have at least two years together to turn around a franchise that has seen nothing but heartbreak since losing Game 7 of the 2006 National League Championship Series.

On the field, the Mets appear to be a team that will need to rely on an offense that boasts numerous former All Stars. Not only is the pitching staff suspect to begin with, but there is no assurance that their ace Johan Santana will pitch at all in 2011. As a whole, the Mets have as many question marks as any team in baseball. If young players like Josh Thole and Jonathon Niese can continue to progress, if Mike Pelfrey can recapture the dominance he sported during the first half of the 2010 season, if Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran can stay healthy and bring some much needed power to the lineup, then the Mets list of question marks could be cut in half....at best.

As far as sure things go, David Wright and Jose Reyes should and will continue to be the foundation of the team. After a poor 2009 season, Wright bounced back in a big way with 103 RBIs and 29 HRs last year while Jose Reyes played well after missing most of '09. The biggest question involving the Wright/Reyes combination is if they will still be teammates by August 1st. There have been numerous reports, rumors, speculations, etc. about the future of Jose Reyes with the Mets. He is set to become a free agent and he will absolutely be looking to cash in on what could possibly be the last big money contract of his career. It is no secret that the Mets appear to be financially strapped going forward so trading Reyes may be their only choice. Much like the Denver Nuggets of the NBA, the Mets may be forced to trade their superstar simply because they would rather get something in return then watch him walk away in free agency. Sure they may not be compensated with equal value, but getting something is always better then nothing.

Perhaps the best thing that the Mets can hang their hat on is their future All Star First Baseman Ike Davis. Davis came on strong last year and appears to be one of the game's future stars. His calm demeanor fits well in the New York market and his maturity goes way beyond his years. Davis has the potential to reach 30 HRs and 85 RBIs this season. To go along with his bat, Davis is a stud defensively. His range and reliable glove make him a fixture at first base for the next ten years. The future is bright for the former first round pick.

Its too bad the Mets can't sprinkle some of the first base reliability to second, because it appears that Luis Castillo's old stomping grounds will be a roller coaster all season. As for now, Brad Emaus will be getting most of the playing time while Daniel Murphy and Chin-lung Hu fill in when necessary. Murphy showed plenty of promise in 2009 but missed all of 2010 due to injury. Murphy appears to be the team's most valuable bench player as he will come in at a number of different positions when called upon. Though his fielding may be suspect, he can deliver on the offensive side, which makes him a valuable piece of the Mets lineup.

No unit on the 2011 Mets has undergone more turnover then the bullpen. Gone are fixtures like Pedro Feliciano (Yankees) and Hisanori Takahashi (Angels), while newcomers Tim Byrdak, Taylor Buchholz, and D.J. Carrasco will be asked to pick up the slack. Byrdak is an older reliever who has been around and is considered a lefty specialist. He could provide solid innings but at his age injuries will always be a concern. Buchholz was elite...in 2008. The Mets cannot put too much pressure on him from the get go because he has missed the majority of the last two season recovering from shoulder surgery. Carrasco will be asked to pitch a lot of innings. He has past experience as a starter and considering what else the Mets have in the bullpen, he could play an integral part of the 2011 squad.

Back from last year are Francisco Rodriguez and Bobby Parnell. Other then Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran, perhaps no Met player has more pressure on him then K-Rod. He had an ugly falling out last season and it appears that the organization is waiting for his departure. For this season, K-Rod will need to do better then he has in his first two seasons in New York. Since leaving the Angels, K-Rod has never come close to matching his past performances. In his two seasons with the Mets he has been a solid closer, but he has not lived up to the contract that Omar Minaya gave him after the 2008 season in which he set the Major League record for saves in a single season (62.) Bobby Parnell has an elite fastball, sometimes reaching speeds as fast as 98mph. Some in the Mets organization believe that Parnell could possibly be the Mets future closer. It will be interesting to see just how many innings he pitches this season. He was effective last year (2.83 ERA), but he only pitched in 35 innings. In 2009 he appeared in 88 innings and his ERA was almost double that of last season (5.30 ERA.)

From afar, the Mets do not appear to be a team ready to contend for the playoffs. Over the last few years, however, more teams in Major League Baseball have seemingly come out of nowhere then people seem to realize. In terms of how this season will play out, here are a plethora of predictions---good and bad

The Good
-Josh Thole will continue to progress and make believers out of those who do not think he can be the catcher of the future

-R.A. Dickey will prove that last season was no fluke. He may not have as low an ERA (2.84) but he will provide quality starts for the Mets and will finish with at least 13 wins.

-Jonathon Niese will have an ERA under four and will add to the success he saw last season.

-Angel Pagan will bat above .280 and steal at least 35 bases

The Bad
-Mike Pelfrey will again drive Mets fans crazy. He will not be the consistent pitcher that the organization is hoping for. He will not reach the 15 win total that he achieved last season.

-Johan Santana will return in July but will not instill much confidence in the team as he will struggle to close out the season. It is not crazy to believe that 2011 may be the start of Santana's decline.

-Jason Bay will be better then 2010 (he cannot be much worse) but will not make anyone believe that he was worth the 4 year $66 million dollar contract that he signed last offseason. He will hit no more then 22 HRs.

2011 New York Mets record- 82-80