Monday, August 30, 2010

Where To Go From Here



As August turns to September and contenders look to October, the Mets look to 2011. The 2010 season was a valley of ups and downs, certainly with more lows then highs. By seasons end, the playoff drought will be at four years. Four years since Beltran stood looking at strike three of the 2006 NLCS. Four years since the Mets were a contender. Four years since the Mets mattered.


The current Mets team is made up of a core that has run it's course. The team has more stars then the average Major League club. There are All Star calibre players in the infield, outfield, and pitching staff. For the Mets to barely be .500 and in fourth place in the NL East is not only bad, it is embarrassing. Unfortunately for Mets fans, 2011 looks to be every bit as disheartening as 2010.


From a personnel standpoint, the Mets have big decisions to make. Will they trade Reyes? Is Thole the full time catcher? Is the outfield set as is? Are there any pitchers that could be added to the rotation? Who is the real Mike Pelfrey? These are questions that will need answers for the Mets to even think about competing next season.


Unfortunately for the Mets, their off season options will be limited due to a $130+ million dollar payroll and bad contracts that still have one year left to cash out. Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, Francisco Rodriguez, and Oliver Perez are not only expensive and untradeable, they have little to no upside going forward. In other words, the Mets are stuck with declining players who will still require huge chunks of money.


The best part about the 2010 Mets season was the development of young, promising pieces of the future. Ike Davis looks to be one his way to stardom. John Niese has shown flashes of being a future #3 fixture in the rotation. Josh Thole, though lacking in power, has been very consistent both behind the plate and with the bat. Ruben Tejada has remarkable defensive ability and at only 20 years old, he has plenty of time to improve his hitting. Lastly, Jenrry Mejia is the Mets most valuable commodity. He is young, cheap, and has been dominant thus far. He has the ability to be a big time ace once he gains more experience. In effect, there are players to be excited about in the future.


2010 also produced pleasant surprises like R.A Dickey (2.57 ERA in 20 starts) and Angel Pagan (batting .295 through 122 games.) It is no shoe-in that both players will be able to replicate their success next season, but both players have certainly earned a spot in the team's immediate future.


Despite all these feel good observations from this season the Mets have continued to lose games. Every lose seems to be because of a different variable. If Johan pitches 8 innings and allows 1 run, the Mets put up a goose egg on offense. If the Mets score 6 runs through 5 innings, Mike Pelfrey allows 7 runs in 4 innings. During this past year, the team has simply not made the plays necessary to not only play postseason baseball but to even be in the discussion come September.
From where the team sits today, 2011 looks to be similar to 2010. The Mets have the potential to tease their fans again next year and that is most likely what will happen. Underachieving roster, lame duck manager, bloated payroll, and desperate fan base. The Mets have plenty of areas to improve but as history has shown us, they most likely won't get it right.

Friday, August 27, 2010

No Revis? No Chance


The Darrelle Revis holdout is coming up on four weeks. There have been glimmers of hope, but so far there is still no resolution. As of right now, it appears this will not be resolved before the Jets season opener on September 13th. The Revis camp wants their client to be the highest paid cornerback in the league. The Jets want to sign him to a long term deal that is more accommodating to the team's future. The end result? No agreement.

Everyone has heard the arguments for both sides throughout this ordeal. Revis has three years left, the Jets promised a new contract, Revis is the best at his position, yada yada yada. No matter which side you take, one thing is clear. The 2010 New York Jets are not a shoe in for the Super Bowl, let alone the playoffs without their best player on the field. In 2009, Revis had arguably the best season a cornerback has ever had. No one on the Jets roster can even come close to replacing that type of production.

Antonio Cromartie is great...as a #2 cornerback. Kyle Wilson is great...as a nickel back. Dwight Lowery is better then average...as the dime back. The secondary would be undoubtedly the best in football with #24 eliminating half the field. Without him? Things fall by the wayside. Cromartie is not a shutdown corner. He is a high risk/high reward type of player who will make you sing his praises one play, and curse his name the next. He has never been a fan of contact and is easily one of the worst tacklers in the NFL. For the most part, Cromartie should be able to dominate #2 wide receivers, but facing the NFL's elite may not be so easy. Kyle Wilson was widely regarded as the best man-to-man cover corner in the draft and has been very promising so far in training camp. However, things will certainly get rocky once the bullets start flying for real. Rookie corners rarely, if ever, have great rookie seasons. Wilson is going to realize very quickly that covering Wes Welker is just a tad bit tougher then covering Joe Schmo of the Western Athletic Conference.

In the past, Rex Ryan has been a master of reshuffling and retooling. He has won some games without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed and his Jets defense will still be above average without Revis. That is all well and good, but the stakes are raised when your team has Super Bowl aspirations. Jets fans will realize just how much they miss #24 when their Revis-less defense is getting beaten up by Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, and Brandon Marshall during the first 3 weeks of the season.

The AFC is a loaded conference and the AFC East is one of the toughest divisions in football. The Jets have put it all on the line this season and anything short of the AFC Championship would be a major disappointment. Without Revis, everything changes. The Jets go from a potential 1/2 seed to a team that will have to fight and claw it's way to the playoffs.

Until the Jets kick it off for real, there is a chance this deal can get done. The two sides have been playing chicken for weeks now and hopefully one side blinks first. If the stare off goes past September 13th than all hell could potentially break lose. No Revis means no division title, no Super Bowl, no championship. But hey, Jets fans have been living that way since 1969.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Sleeper Quarterback/Running Back Fantasy Options




Quarterbacks


Matthew Stafford-The Lions will be playing from behind for most of the season which means more opportunities for Stafford to air it out. He averaged over 225 yards per game through the air last season so he should improve in his second season. The Lions added Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler in the off season to give Stafford more weapons to go along with Calvin Johnson. Getting Stafford as a #2 Quarterback is a great option, especially if your #1 QB isn't a sure thing.

Matt Ryan-An injury plagued second season took Ryan off of the national radar. In year 3, however, Ryan will prove to be an upper echelon QB. If you choose to go heavy on the Running Backs and Wide Receivers in the early rounds then Ryan will be a great option in the fifth/sixth round.


Kevin Kolb-Playing with no proven Running Back and with a coach who loves to pass makes Kolb a very attractive option. He has been able to sit and learn Andy Reid's system, which should make him comfortable behind center from the start. He may throw a lot of interceptions, but Kolb will put up plenty of yards and touchdowns to even it out.


Jay Cutler- Sure he led the league in interceptions last season but he did throw 27 touchdowns to go along with it. Now playing under Mike Martz, Cutler will be slinging it to a group of Wide Receivers who have had a year to get accustomed to his ball. Cutler could approach 30 touchdown passes and 4,000 yards this season. He could be a steal in the 5th round.


Running Backs


Arian Foster- The Texans lost 2nd round draft pick Ben Tate for the entire season. This leaves Foster and Steve Slaton as the only two viable starting options on the team. Slaton has had an awful fumbling problem that will hinder him from receiving the majority of the carries. Foster will be the starter on a great offensive team, which will bolster him stats. He was able to average 4.8 yards per carry last year as a part time player so there seems to be potential there. He will also be available late in fantasy drafts this year.

Ryan Matthews- No more LT means there is plenty of carries up for grabs in San Diego. The Chargers were one of the NFL's worst running teams last year, yet, LT still managed to accumulate 12 touchdowns. Matthews will be the only viable starter at Running Back in a high powered option. Look for Matthews in the 4th/5th round.

Ahmad Bradshaw- Though Jacobs might receive the majority of the carries, Bradshaw will be close behind. Behind a declining offensive line, Bradshaw was able to gain 778 yards and 4.8 yards per carry with 7 touchdowns. Look for Bradshaw in the 8th/9th round as a #3 Running Back.

Clinton Portis- Larry Johnson and Willie Parker are over the hill, finished, done. The Redskins will need to hand someone the ball in Mike Shanahan's new offense and currently Portis is the only viable option. The Redskins have made improvements to their offensive line which should open more holes in the run game this season. Portis in the 7th/8th round would be a steal, either as a poor #2 or a great #3.

Chris Wells- No more Kurt Warner or Anquan Bolding means no more great aerial attack in Arizona. Wells had a very good rookie season and should improve in year 2 with more carries and opportunities. The Cardinals have not even settled on a starting Quarterback so naturally they will be relying more on the running game this season. Russ Grimm and Ken Wisenhunt love the "ground and pound" philosophy so Wells will be natural beneficiary.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Another All Star On the Way?


Six weeks ago the New York Knicks added one perennial All Star in Amare Stoutemire...could another soon be joining him?

The latest breaking news in the NBA off season has been revolving around Carmelo Anthony and his plans to forgo signing the 3 year 65$ million dollar deal that has been on the table for months. Melo' is under contract for 2010, but beyond that, he is free to sign wherever he desires. At age 26, Carmelo is one of the NBA's best scorers (28.2 PPG last season) and easily a top 10 player in the entire league. He is one of the game's best clutch shooters and has been able to maintain his superstar status among a team of circus characters and controversy.

From all recent reports, Carmelo has a small wish list of where he would like to play next season. That list features the New York Knicks at the top, bottom, and everywhere in between. In other words, New York is his only desire. Born and raised in Brooklyn, Carmelo knows all about the glory of playing in the world's most famous arena. Before he achieved NBA super stardom, Carmelo earned himself a spot on New York's list of college basketball greats by leading Syracuse to a National Championship during his lone year in college. It appears his goal is to come full circle by playing in New York one more time.

At this point, it seems only logical for the Nuggets to trade Carmelo. If he has no intention of re-signing, they might as well get some type of value in return while they still can. Sure, trading the team's best player is a tough sell to the fans, but it is still the best option at this point. The Nuggets should begin to plan for life without Carmelo and they would be wise to start gathering offers for his services.

If Carmelo is to be a Knick, then New York must offer some value in return. When looking at the team's roster, there appears to be only two players that would be deemed untouchable...Amare Stoutemire, for obvious reasons, and Raymond Felton, due to trade restrictions on newly signed free agents. That leaves Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Anthony Randolph as the Knicks with the most value on the court, and Eddy Curry as the Knick with the most value off the court (expiring 11$ million dollar contract.) If the Knicks have any chance of acquiring one of the league's best players then the first proposal should involve some of, if not all, the players listed above. Getting productive, young, cheap, players like Chandler and Randolph along with 11$ million dollars of cap relief with Curry is not an awful consolation prize for Denver.

In the meantime, Knicks fans should wait and hope. Donnie Walsh already delivered them one of the NBA's top 15 players. Adding another would elevate the Knicks to being one of the Eastern Conference's 3 or 4 best teams. Who knows? Maybe not getting Lebron wasn't so bad after all...

Quick Recap of Jets-Giants

New York Jets

The Good

-Sanchez going 13/16 for 119 yards and a touchdown after the interception

-LT still has some game

-Shonn Greene is a tank. He gains 3/4 yards after contact on every play

-Cromartie looked very very good in Rex Ryan's man coverage scheme

-Besides the Ahmad Bradshaw play, the Jets 1st team defense dominated the Giants 1st team offense

The Bad

-Matt Slauson was underwhelming with the 1st team offense

-Vlad Duccasse is not ready to play this season

-Joe McKnight did not look very good

The Ugly

-The 2nd and 3rd team secondary made Victor Cruz look like Jerry Rice

-Vernon Gholston is still invisible

-Still no Darrellle Revis


New York Giants

The Good

-Ahmad Bradshaw looked great, he may finally be completely healthy

-The safeties played very well

-Eli is still in one piece

-The 2nd and 3rd string defenders shut down the Jet backups

The Bad

-The Giants 1st team offense could not get anything going

-Brandon Jacobs did not look good

-The offensive line had problems with the Jets blitzes

The Ugly

-Eli and Jacobs running into each other and almost getting Eli put on the IR

-The classless Giants fan who tried to push Fireman Ed off of his brother's shoulders, that guy should have been ejected from the stadium

-Letting the Jets starters march at will after the Rolle pick

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Team Weaknesses: New York Giants


The Super Bowl Champion 2007 New York Giants prided themselves on running the football and rushing the passer. As things currently stand, these two philosophies have become the Giants two biggest question marks.

The running game will again be led by Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs is looking to bounce back off his worst season as a starter, in which he ran for 835 yards on a pedestrian 3.7 yards per carry. After averaging over 5 yards per carry as a full time starter in 2007 and 2008, last season's drop off left Giants fans concerned that their bull may have lost his horns. In a league where running backs decline at a staggering rate, Jacobs has to bounce back to keep his starting job from the up and coming Ahmad Bradshaw.

As Jacobs struggled last season, Bradshaw seemed to emerge more and more every week. He achieved a personal best in rushing yards (778) and was able to maintain a 4.8 yards per carry average on a career high 163 carries. Should Jacobs continue to falter in the first few weeks of the season, the Giants will not hesitate to make Bradshaw the primary ball carrier going forward. Neither back is capable of handling 300 carries so the committee approach will need to be used once more. A 65-35 Jacobs to Bradshaw ratio would be best to keep both backs productive and healthy. To be fair, both backs were banged up all of last season so an off season of healing may elevate both players to new heights.

Perhaps even more important then the play of Jacobs and Bradshaw is the play of the offensive line. A group that was once perhaps the best in the NFL seemed to erode last season. In an ideal world, second year LT William Beaty will start at LT and allow the Giants to kick over David Diehl to LG to replace weak link Rich Seubert. Shaun O'Hara is another year older and Kareem McKenzie can no longer be counted on to make it through an entire season. It appears the only sure thing is All Pro RG Chris Snee. A bit of reshuffling will need to be done to allow the Giants to re-establish the running game that won them 26 games in 2007 and 2008.

As Steve Spagnuolo left, so did the Giants pass rush. Giants fans still have the image of Donovan McNabb drinking a cup of coffee in the pocket before lofting up bombs to Desean Jackson. 2009 underachievers Osi Umenyiora, Chris Canty, and Rocky Bernard will need to bounce back to allow new Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell to revive a defense that gave up more points then 30 other teams last season. Justin Tuck, Barry Cofield, and Matthias Kiwanuka return, along with high draft picks Jason Pierre-Paul and Linval Joseph. On paper the defensive line is loaded, but people said the same thing only one year ago. Until the defensive line proves it is legit, it will remain a question mark. The Giants have put a ton of personnel, money, and draft picks into the defensive line so anything less then a top 5 unit will be a disappointment.

Predictions

-Jacobs has somewhat of a bounce back season. He will not be the dominating force he was nor the feeble, easy to bring down, back he was last season. Think somewhere in the middle (2010 stats- 234 carries, 982 yards, 4.2 yards per carry, 10 touchdowns.)

-Bradshaw will remain an integral part of the offense. As both a runner and receiver he will be a threat every time he is on the field. (2010 stats- 170 carries, 782 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, 7 touchdowns.)

-The defensive line will be a strength of the team but not the dominating force it should be. Under Perry Fewell, opposing quarterbacks will not be able to relax the way they did in 2009. Tuck will continue to be great. Osi will be negated to a 3rd down pass rusher because he can no longer stop the run on 1st and 2nd down. Kiwanuka will be steady but will need to have more then the 3 sacks he had last season. 1st round pick Jason Pierre Paul only started 7 games of Division One college football so don't expect anything out of him in his first season. Chris Canty is facing the prospect of becoming one of the worst free agent signings in Giants history if he doesn't give more then the 4 starts and half a sack he gave the team last year. All in all, expect a solid pass rush but not the second coming of the New York Sack Exchange.